After the 50th anniversary of the arrival of humans on the Moon, the world welcomes another 40-year anniversary of an extremely important discovery for the future of Earth and humanity.
Just a few days ago, the whole world was very excited to celebrate the 50th anniversary since Neil Armstrong put the first human steps on the Moon.
Humans set foot on the Moon is not a small achievement, but 10 years later, we will note another more important event.
It was a meaningful event, attracting great attention from the world public opinion. Yet few people notice that also in these days, we will be greeted with a celebration of other achievements even more important to the future of human civilization.
Achievements named: Report Charney
Specifically, forty years ago (23-27 / 1979), a group of climatologists sat down to discuss at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts during the first meeting of “Ad Hoc Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate. “(roughly translated: Special Carbon Dioxide Research Group and Climate).
This meeting is a preparation for the Charney Report – the first comprehensive assessment of global climate change caused by greenhouse gases. In other words, in 1979, scientists for the first time predicted that Earth’s climate would change in a negative direction. And what happened today proved that they were right.
This problem may not sound as impressive as the man who landed on the Moon. The Charney Report, however, is a prime example of the benefits that science provides, and its accurate predictions over the past 40 years have helped build a solid science for people about Climate Change.
What is “greenhouse gas”?
Since the 19th century, many scientists have come up with the concept of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) which is what we nowadays call “greenhouse gases.” By the 1950s, scientists predicted that the Earth would warm a few degrees Celsius from fossil fuel consumption.
In 1972, John Sawyer, a researcher at the UK Meteorological Agency, wrote a four-page report published in the journal Nature. It summarizes previous climate change studies and predicts that the average temperature of the Earth will increase by 0.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the 20th century.
Jule Charney – the first to mention climate change for mankind
The 1979 Woods Woods meeting gathered about 10 distinguished climatologists, representing many other famous scientists around the world. The meeting was led by Jule Charney of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology – one of the most prominent meteorologists in the 20th century -.
“We estimate that the highest possibility is that the Earth will heat up 3 degrees Celsius if CO2 emissions double, the error may be 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
Excerpt from Charney report.
Forty years after the meeting, the average annual atmospheric CO2 concentration measured in Mauna Loa, Hawaii increased 21%.
Over the same period, the global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.66 degrees Celsius. Thus, if the amount of CO 2 doubled, the Earth’s temperature would be 2.5 hotter. degree C – almost coincides with the previous estimate.
The world receives the report
Although the authors of the Charney Report were all influential at the time, the report did not immediately change the attitude of the public and politicians.
Over the years, the Earth has been growing hotter as expected, the new report has been accepted by the world and is considered as an important milestone that opens up the right understanding of human actions affecting climate. how.
Today, Charney and co-authors are highly revered by junior scientists for their intelligence and insight.
The Charney Report is a prime example of how proper science works: formulate a hypothesis from chemical and physical analysis, and then base on specific assessments. able to make “firm predictions”.
“Firm prediction” here means that the prediction only does not occur if the previous hypothesis and scientific foundations are incorrect. In other words, if the previous hypotheses exist, then the prediction will almost certainly occur. In this case, the specific prediction is that the average temperature of the Earth will increase by about 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C if the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere doubles.
At that time, without the hypothesis and scientific basis for climate change, we would not be sure whether Earth’s temperature would remain the same, decrease or increase, any result. may also occur. Therefore, their specific prediction has helped this science pass a rigorous test to confirm its place for humanity.
The authors of the Charney Report not only summarize the system of knowledge but they also try to cast skepticism about their own conclusions, to find factors that may have caused them to make false predictions. They conclude:
“We have tried, but still cannot find, any underestimated or underestimated physical effects that could make the current estimate lower or or reverse this estimate.”
This report proves that its predictions have occurred, and thus provides a solid scientific basis to help people act properly to address global warming.
Over the past 40 years, the Earth has been warming up as predicted by Charney et al., The science of climate change research is increasingly improved, many new and better models are also developed from the Old models have not been completed since 1979.
However, this late science only recognizes the conclusions of the Charney Report, although many other predictions of climate change are currently being made.